Goldknopf and Bennett face coalition math test

Political assessments circulating in Israel suggest the upcoming election could hinge on two specific variables: the three seats held by Agudat Yisrael and the potential involvement of former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett. As voting begins in less than 24 hours, figures in the establishment are weighing scenarios where the haredi faction supports an opposition-led government in exchange for budgetary concessions.

Yitzhak Goldknopf heads Agudat Yisrael, a three-seat faction within United Torah Judaism. According to reports from Maariv in August, his group is exploring cooperation with Gadi Eisenkot and the change bloc. This interest arose amid internal friction between Agudat Yisrael and Degel Hatorah. Tensions centered on the haredi military draft and relations with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. A letter from Rabbi Dov Lando expressed doubts about maintaining the commitment to the Likud-led coalition, adding uncertainty to the haredi-Likud alliance.

Even if Agudat Yisrael backs an opposition government, analysts note that votes from Arab parties may still be required to secure a majority. Goldknopf faces a strategic challenge because his voters are largely identified with the Right. Assessments indicate that backing a change bloc government could drive some supporters toward Likud or Otzma Yehudit. The faction’s willingness to bridge this gap remains unproven.

The role of Naftali Bennett has also drawn attention. If neither the Right nor the change bloc secures the 61 seats needed for a Knesset majority, Bennett could be pivotal. One scenario suggests he might join a government led by Netanyahu. This is considered a remote possibility, but some believe Bennett is the only leader in the change bloc capable of such a move given his political background.

Bennett would still need to shift his base of support, a task complicated by his current party’s composition. Avigdor Liberman has been mentioned as another potential bridge figure, noting his service as defense minister in a previous Netanyahu-led government. However, current assessments place Liberman far from such a move due to personal and political disagreements with the prime minister.

These scenarios remain theoretical assessments rather than formal agreements. The central question for coalition negotiations will be which politicians are willing to move their political bases. For now, the outcome depends on the final seat count and the decisions made by Goldknopf and Bennett.